Global investor and author Ruchir Sharma discusses the 75-year history of India’s economy with NDTV’s Prannoy Roy. He said, “compared to the rest of the world, India is not as rich now as it was before independence, but it is on the rise”.
Here are the highlights of Prannoy Roy’s conversation with Ruchir Sharma:
* Progress of Indian economy so far:
We started in sixth place and we are currently in sixth place. India’s development path has been reformed. The 60s, 70s were a terrible time for India. We are back to the level of growth from the 1980s.
* Per capita income compared to the rest of the world:
It is a V shape, which shows that we have bounced back. We are where we are in the original data. The story about per capita income, the most economic criteria of a country’s success, is more telling.
* We are back in the world race. India’s per capita income has risen and it’s global ranking is increasing.
We have made significant progress and great innovation in the 75 years of its history.
* China’s return is more surprising:
In the 1990s, new cities were created in China, there was a boom there. The number of cities that come up is impressive.
In the case of India, in any rural area, 10 percent has come from another area. The immigration is very small, which is not the case in China.
It is very difficult to do what China does but we can still imitate.
* Life expectancy so far:
On many indicators, our growth has been impressive, on others, it is comparable to others and on some it is less.
* Progress up to the end of the course:
*India’s progress in economic independence.
We still do not have economic freedom as compared to other countries. So, according to the data, the more wealthy a country is, the more economic freedom it has.
*Indian Stock Market:
*Indian stock market has seen many winners:
The number of new billionaires we have in India has also gone up.
* Government continues to lose value:
Government ownership has dropped from 15 per cent to 5 per cent in the market. The government and taxpayers have lost wealth because ownership has gone down in the stock market.
* India’s billionaire boom – 3rd largest in the world:
Of these 140, more than 110 are new billionaires. India has created more than 110 billionaires in the last decade and many of them are from manufacturing, healthcare and technology, sectors which India needs. It’s a very inspiring picture.
* Travel of the rupee:
The rupee has fallen by Rs 75 in the last 75 years. Today, the rupee is on the cheap and competitive side.
Where Are We Going:
* Lost high growth story:
There are no countries with 7 percent growth. The highest rate was in 2007, when many countries were growing at a rate of more than 7 percent, now there is none.
* Reasons for slowing growth: The 4Ds
These 4D’s are factors which reduce growth every year.
* India’s population growth is slowing down:
* Other populations are declining faster than China:
* Female labor force participation:
Getting women involved in our work will change the growth rate of our country.
* New criteria of economic success: India would do well to sustain 5 per cent growth:
* High growth rate: India has done well so far
* India on track to be 3rd largest economy in 10 years:
Going by these principles, India will become the third largest economy by 2032.
* How long will it take for India to double its per capita income:
* India’s performance in progress:
We are better now than we were ten years ago if we compare to other countries. India has an additional issue but it is very rich of the rest of the world.
*Where the stock is going:
India’s stock market is well above its long-term trend. If you get more home investors, if you get more investors, the return can be higher but assume that trends will grow by 8 percent in 10 years.
* Competitive value of the rupee:
Rupee today is very competitive which should be good for our exports.
* India is digitizing faster than the world:
* Fewer exits due to digitition:
* India has copyright: