Crypto

EUR/GBP Price Forecast, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD -by Ecork

Euro forecast:

  • Peripheral bond yields continued to ease after last Wednesday’s emergency meeting of the European Central Bank.
  • EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP rates are in the bullish breakout zone, while EUR/USD rates are range-bound.
  • for every The IG Customer Confidence IndexAnd the EUR/JPY and EUR/USD rates have a mixed bias while EUR/GBP rates have a bearish slope.

European Central Bank time

Less than a week after the European Central Bank policy meeting in June, Governing Council reconvened to calm Eurozone sovereign bond markets. Peripheral bond yields, particularly those in Greece and Italy, are beginning to widen rapidly against their core counterparts (eg German), reviving fears of a reactivation of the eurozone debt crisis.

However, since the vague and ambiguous remarks from the European Central Bank about preventing fragmentation in the bond markets, Greek and Italian bond yields have calmed down in a way enough to allay concerns. The ECB’s efforts to devote time to Eurozone bonds proved sufficient to prevent the euro from weighing in a big way; In fact, the Euro has been one of the top performing major currencies since hitting its lowest levels last Wednesday.

With that said, the rally in the Euro pairs took a different shape depending on the pair. While EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP prices are still on the path of bullish breakouts, EUR/USD prices are only trading higher in the middle of a range formed since late April.

EUR/USD Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (June 2021 to June 2022) (Chart 1)

EUR/USD prices continue to recover from last week’s lows, although in the grand scheme of things nothing has changed: the range established since late April continues to define price action. EUR/USD rates are higher than 5 and 8-EMA but lower than 13 and 21-EMA; EMA envelope remains in descending sequential order. The daily MACD is heading lower below its signal line, but the spread is narrowing, and the daily slow stochastic is moving up towards its midline. Range trading remains preferred until support around 1.0349 / 97 is broken to the downside or resistance around 1.0757 / 1.0806 is broken to the upside.

IG Customer Confidence Index: EUR/USD Price Forecast (21 June 2022) (Chart 2)

EUR Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD: Retail trader data shows 66.88% of traders are net long with the ratio of traders taking long to yellow at 2.02 to 1. The number of long-term traders is 1.79% higher than yesterday and 0.79% lower than the week Past. While the number of short traders is 0.40% higher than yesterday, and 8.49% higher than last week.

We usually take a conflicting view with crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are holding suggests that EUR/USD prices may continue lower.

Positioning is longer net than yesterday but less net buy than last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us more mixed bias in EUR/USD trading.

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (June 2021 to June 2022) (Chart 3)

EUR Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Price Forecast

Amid a rebound in risk appetite and a growing divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, EUR/JPY prices maintain the most bullish structure among the major EUR pairs. Momentum remains strongly bullish, with the pair fully rising above the envelope of the daily exponential moving average, which is in a sequential ascending order. The daily MACD is heading higher above its signal line, while the daily Slow Stochastic is close to returning to the overbought territory. In the near term, a return to the 2022 high at 144.25 is likely.

IG Customer Confidence Index: EUR/JPY Price Forecast (June 21, 2022) (Chart 4)

EUR Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/JPY: Retail trader data shows that 38.05% of traders are net long with the ratio of short-term traders to long at 1.63 to 1. The number of long-term traders is 3.01% lower than yesterday and 33.68% higher than last week, while the number of long-term traders is 3.01% lower than yesterday and 33.68% higher than last week. The number of short traders is up 8.25% from yesterday and down by 11.21% from last week.

We usually take a conflicting view with crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are very short indicates that EUR/JPY prices may continue to rise.

Positioning is more net selling than yesterday but less net selling than last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us more mixed bias in EUR/JPY trading.

EUR/GBP Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (Feb 2021 to Jun 2022) (Chart 5)

EUR Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/GBP prices just hit a new yearly high last week, and despite a sharp reversal lower, the pair continues to trade above a descending resistance channel dating back to February 2021, which indicates that the bullish breakout is still on the right track. Momentum indicators are still bullish, with the daily MACD heading higher above its signal line, while the daily slow stochastic has settled around its mid-line. A slow and steady grind towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020/2022 low range at 0.8698 may occur during the remainder of June.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EUR/GBP Price Forecast (21 June 2022) (Chart 6)

EUR Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/GBP: Retail trader data shows 58.68% of traders are net long with the ratio of traders taking long to yellow at 1.42 to 1. The number of long-term traders is 3.52% higher than yesterday and 19.75% higher than last week The number of short traders is 5.94% lower than yesterday and 24.01% lower than last week.

We usually take a conflicting view with crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are holding suggests that EUR/GBP prices may continue to fall.

Traders are long longer than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger bearish mixed trading bias than EUR/GBP.

{{the news}}

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA Analyst, Chief Strategist

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Back to top button